Tom Nolan Next Fight: Nolan vs. Moicano on October 31

Next fight: Nolan vs. Moicano

Tom Nolan (5-1) meets Renato Moicano (13-7) on Saturday, October 31, 2026, in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, at lightweight.

How the fight looks

Nolan is a striker; Moicano is a grappler who wrestles to submit. The fight turns on the wrestling. Moicano wants it on the mat; Nolan wants it standing and has the better of the exchanges there. Expect Moicano to get it down: Nolan stops only 58% of takedowns.

• On the feet: Nolan lands 4.7 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.8; Moicano lands 3.1 and absorbs 3.4. Nolan is clearly the busier striker and wins the exchanges by the wider margin.
• On the mat: Nolan averages 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes at 27% and spends 18% of fight time in control. Moicano stops 57% of takedowns.
• On the mat: Moicano averages 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes at 36% and spends 34% of fight time in control. Nolan stops 58% of takedowns.
• Submissions: Nolan has 1 UFC win by submission and tries 1.4 per 15 minutes. Moicano has been submitted twice.

Our pick

Nolan by decision. 3 of Nolan's 5 UFC wins went to the scorecards. MMA.SOCIAL's rating has Nolan at 1,068 and Moicano at 1,051, 52% for Nolan. The styles pull both ways. Nolan has the striking, with a strike differential (significant strikes landed minus absorbed) of +0.9 a minute to Moicano's -0.3. Moicano has the wrestling, with 0.8 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Nolan's defence, to 0.5 the other way. With the styles in: Nolan 55%.

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Last fight

Nolan beat Farès Ziam by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on June 6, 2026. Round-by-round stats.

Nolan's last 5 fights

Where Nolan stands

• UFC record: 5-1 - 1 by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, and 3 by decision.
• Current run: a 5-fight win streak.
• MMA.SOCIAL rating: 1,068, No. 13 among active lightweights.

Tom Nolan's full profile and fight record