Moicano vs. Nolan Predictions: UFC Fight Night Picks for October 31

Main event: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan prediction

Renato Moicano (13-7) meets Tom Nolan (5-1) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan on Saturday, October 31, 2026, at lightweight.

How it plays out

Moicano is a grappler who wrestles to submit; Nolan is a striker. The fight turns on the wrestling. Moicano wants it on the mat; Nolan wants it standing and has the better of the exchanges there. Expect Moicano to get it down: Nolan stops only 58% of takedowns.

• On the feet: Moicano lands 3.1 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.4; Nolan lands 4.7 and absorbs 3.8. Nolan is clearly the busier striker and wins the exchanges by the wider margin.
• On the mat: Moicano averages 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes at 36% and spends 34% of fight time in control. Nolan stops 58% of takedowns.
• On the mat: Nolan averages 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes at 27% and spends 18% of fight time in control. Moicano stops 57% of takedowns.
• Submissions: Moicano has 7 UFC wins by submission and tries 0.6 per 15 minutes. Nolan has never been submitted in the UFC.
• Submissions: Nolan has 1 UFC win by submission and tries 1.4 per 15 minutes. Moicano has been submitted twice.
• Age: Moicano is 11 years older (37 to 26).
• Five rounds: Moicano has been past round three once in the UFC, Nolan never.

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Nolan by decision. 3 of Nolan's 5 UFC wins went to the scorecards. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Tom Nolan the narrowest of favourites: 1,068 to 1,051, 52%. The styles pull both ways. Nolan has the striking, with a strike differential (significant strikes landed minus absorbed) of +0.9 a minute to Moicano's -0.3. Moicano has the wrestling, with 0.8 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Nolan's defence, to 0.5 the other way. With the styles in, Nolan's chance rises to 55%. The fans disagree: 3 of 5 pick'em players (60%) are with Moicano.

Fight page for Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan · Compare the two side by side

Co-main event: Randy Brown vs. Carlos Leal prediction

Randy Brown (14-8) meets Carlos Leal (2-2) in the co-main event, at welterweight.

How it plays out

Brown is a striker; Leal is a high-volume striker. Expect a stand-up fight: Leal brings more volume.

• On the feet: Brown lands 4.6 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.6; Leal lands 8.8 and absorbs 7.8. Leal is clearly the busier striker.
• Takedowns: neither looks for many (Brown 0.6, Leal 0.4 per 15 minutes).
• Submissions: Brown has 3 UFC wins by submission and tries 0.4 per 15 minutes. Leal has never been submitted in the UFC.
• Reach: Brown has 4 inches more, which matters most at range.

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Brown by decision. 7 of Brown's 14 UFC wins went to the scorecards. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Randy Brown a slight favourite: 1,021 to 974, 57%. On style it is close to even: a similar strike differential and a similar takedown threat. With the styles in, Brown's chance eases to 55%.

Fight page for Randy Brown vs. Carlos Leal · Compare the two side by side

The rest of the card

Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos Women's Bantamweight

Santos is a striker; Santos is a grappler who wrestles to submit. The fight turns on the wrestling. Santos wants it on the mat; Santos wants it standing and has the better of the exchanges there. Expect Santos to get it down: Santos stops only 53% of takedowns. On style, Santos has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +1.5 a minute to Santos's +0.1, and 0.0 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Santos's defence, to 1.0 the other way. Pick: Santos by decision (68% chance). 3 of Santos's 6 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov Welterweight

Lebosnoyani is a grappler who wrestles to submit; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Lebosnoyani by decision (53% chance). All 2 of Lebosnoyani's UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Hasanov has never lost in the UFC.

Francis Marshall vs. Gaston Bolanos Featherweight

Marshall is a pressure wrestler; Bolanos is a striker. The fight turns on the wrestling. Marshall wants it on the mat; Bolanos wants it standing and has the better of the exchanges there. Expect Marshall to get it down: Bolanos stops only 50% of takedowns. The styles pull both ways. Bolanos has the striking, with a strike differential of +0.4 a minute to Marshall's -0.8. Marshall has the wrestling, with 1.0 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Bolanos's defence, to 0.1 the other way. Pick: Marshall by decision (52% chance). 2 of Marshall's 4 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Azamat Bekoev vs. Andre Petroski Middleweight

Bekoev and Petroski are both pressure wrestlers. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and Petroski projects to land more takedowns against the other's defence. On style, Petroski has the edge both ways: a strike differential of -0.9 a minute to Bekoev's -2.3, and 1.1 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Bekoev's defence, to 0.5 the other way. Pick: Petroski by decision (51% chance). 5 of Petroski's 8 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren Welterweight

Pick: Sezinando by decision (a coin flip). Sezinando has no UFC wins yet; Berggren has lost 1 UFC fight: 1 by KO/TKO.

Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee Featherweight

Erosa is a striker who mixes in takedowns with a submission game; Lee is a striker. Expect a stand-up fight: Erosa brings more volume. On style, Erosa has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +0.3 a minute to Lee's -0.6, and 0.6 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Lee's defence, to 0.2 the other way. Pick: Lee by decision (61% chance). All 2 of Lee's UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot Middleweight

Klein is a grappler who wrestles to submit; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Kropschot by KO/TKO (64% chance, with a UFC debut in the fight). Kropschot makes a UFC debut; Klein has lost 2 UFC fights: 2 by KO/TKO.

Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez Women's Strawweight

Alencar and Rodriguez are both pressure wrestlers. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and Rodriguez projects to land more takedowns against the other's defence. On style, Rodriguez has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +1.0 a minute to Alencar's 0.0, and 1.5 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Alencar's defence, to 0.5 the other way. Pick: Rodriguez by decision (52% chance). All 5 of Rodriguez's UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Alencar has never been finished in the UFC.

Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa Women's Flyweight

Lisboa is a striker who mixes in takedowns; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Szabova by decision (58% chance, with a UFC debut in the fight). Szabova makes a UFC debut; Lisboa has lost 2 UFC fights: 1 by KO/TKO and 1 by submission.

UFC Moicano vs. Nolan full card predictions

Eleven fights. Each pick names the winner, from MMA.SOCIAL's rating adjusted by the two styles, and how the fight most likely ends, from how the favourite wins and how the opponent has lost; the fans' column is the free pick'em so far.

The rating is MMA.SOCIAL's own ELO, built from every UFC fight; the chance is the rating's, adjusted by each fighter's strike differential and takedown threat. Updated hourly through fight week.

Upset watch

• Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: we like Nolan (55%), but 3 of 5 pick'em players (60%) are with Moicano.
• Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren is close to even: Sezinando 50%, Berggren 50%.
• Azamat Bekoev vs. Andre Petroski is close to even: Petroski 51%, Bekoev 49%.
• Francis Marshall vs. Gaston Bolanos is close to even: Marshall 52%, Bolanos 48%.

Make your picks

The UFC Moicano vs. Nolan pick'em is free: pick every fight before the card locks, and calling an underdog the rating doubts pays more. Every bout, with both fighters' full records, is on the UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan event page, and a full results write-up follows as soon as the last fight ends.