Prochazka vs. Stirling Predictions: UFC Fight Night Picks for November 21

Main event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Navajo Stirling prediction

Jiri Prochazka (6-3) meets Navajo Stirling (6-0) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs. Stirling on Saturday, November 21, 2026, at light heavyweight.

How it plays out

Prochazka and Stirling are both high-volume strikers with real knockout power. Expect a stand-up fight: both carry knockout power.

• On the feet: Prochazka lands 5.6 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.7; Stirling lands 6.4 and absorbs 2.5. The output is close, and Stirling wins the exchanges by the wider margin.
• Takedowns: neither looks for many (Prochazka 0.5, Stirling 0.9 per 15 minutes).
• Power: 5 of Prochazka's 6 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, with 5 knockdowns in the last 9 fights. Stirling has never been stopped by strikes in the UFC.
• Power: 3 of Stirling's 6 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, with 2 knockdowns in the last 6 fights. Prochazka has been stopped by strikes 3 times in the UFC.
• Five rounds: Prochazka has been past round three once in the UFC, Stirling never.

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Stirling by KO/TKO. 3 of Stirling's 6 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, and Prochazka has been stopped by strikes 3 times. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Navajo Stirling the favourite: 1,152 to 1,066, 62%. On style, Stirling has the edge on the feet, with a strike differential (significant strikes landed minus absorbed) of +3.9 a minute to Prochazka's -0.1. The takedown threat is close to even. With the styles in, Stirling's chance rises to 75%.

Fight page for Jiri Prochazka vs. Navajo Stirling · Compare the two side by side

Co-main event: Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos prediction

Aljamain Sterling (18-5) meets Kevin Vallejos (4-0) in the co-main event, at featherweight.

How it plays out

Sterling is a pressure wrestler; Vallejos is a high-volume striker with real knockout power. The fight turns on the wrestling. Sterling wants it on the mat; Vallejos wants it standing and has the better of the exchanges there. With Vallejos stopping 90% of takedowns, Sterling may have to win long stretches on the feet.

• On the feet: Sterling lands 3.7 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.3; Vallejos lands 5.7 and absorbs 3.5. Vallejos is clearly the busier striker.
• On the mat: Sterling averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes at 34% and spends 36% of fight time in control. Vallejos stops 90% of takedowns.
• On the mat: Vallejos averages 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes at 33%. Sterling stops 36% of takedowns.
• Power: 3 of Vallejos's 4 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, with 4 knockdowns in the last 4 fights. Sterling has been stopped by strikes twice in the UFC.
• Submissions: Sterling has 4 UFC wins by submission and tries 0.5 per 15 minutes. Vallejos has never been submitted in the UFC.
• Reach: Sterling has 3 inches more, which matters most at range.
• Age: Sterling is 13 years older (37 to 24).

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Sterling by decision. 11 of Sterling's 18 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Vallejos has never lost in the UFC. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Aljamain Sterling the favourite: 1,235 to 1,110, 67%. On style, Vallejos has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +2.1 a minute to Sterling's +1.3, and 0.7 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Sterling's defence, to 0.3 the other way. With the styles in, Sterling's chance eases to 59%.

Fight page for Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos · Compare the two side by side

The rest of the card

Dan Hooker vs. Brian Ortega Lightweight

Hooker is a striker with real knockout power; Ortega is a striker with a submission game. Expect a stand-up fight: Hooker carries the knockout power. On style, Hooker has the edge on the feet, with a strike differential of -0.5 a minute to Ortega's -3.1. The takedown threat is close to even. Pick: Ortega by KO/TKO (65% chance). 3 of Ortega's 8 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, and Hooker has been stopped by strikes 5 times.

Asu Almabayev vs. Kyoji Horiguchi Flyweight

Almabayev is a grappler who wrestles to submit; Horiguchi is a striker who mixes in takedowns. The fight turns on the wrestling. Almabayev wants it on the mat; Horiguchi wants it standing and has the better of the exchanges there. Expect a fight for position: Horiguchi stops 63% of takedowns, enough to make Almabayev work for each one. The styles pull both ways. Horiguchi has the striking, with a strike differential of +1.5 a minute to Almabayev's +0.3. Almabayev has the wrestling, with 1.8 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Horiguchi's defence, to 0.9 the other way. Pick: Horiguchi by decision (51% chance). 6 of Horiguchi's 9 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Jared Cannonier vs. Ikram Aliskerov Middleweight

Cannonier is a striker with real knockout power; Aliskerov is a pressure wrestler with real knockout power. The fight turns on the wrestling. Aliskerov wants it on the mat; Cannonier wants it standing, though Aliskerov has had the better of the exchanges there too. With Cannonier stopping 76% of takedowns, Aliskerov may have to win long stretches on the feet. On style, Aliskerov has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +1.9 a minute to Cannonier's -0.5, and 0.9 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Cannonier's defence, to 0.4 the other way. Pick: Aliskerov by decision (75% chance). 2 of Aliskerov's 5 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Aleksandre Topuria vs. Santiago Luna Bantamweight

Topuria and Luna are both strikers who mix in takedowns. Expect a stand-up fight: Luna brings more volume. The styles pull both ways. Luna has the striking, with a strike differential of +2.0 a minute to Topuria's +0.4. Topuria has the wrestling, with 0.6 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Luna's defence, to 0.0 the other way. Pick: Topuria by decision (51% chance). All 2 of Topuria's UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Shamil Gaziev vs. Tallison Teixeira Heavyweight

Gaziev is a pressure wrestler with real knockout power; Teixeira is a pressure wrestler. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and on the numbers neither has the clear edge there. On style, Teixeira has the edge on the feet, with a strike differential of +0.2 a minute to Gaziev's -2.1. The takedown threat is close to even. Pick: Teixeira by KO/TKO (60% chance). 1 of Teixeira's 2 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, and Gaziev has been stopped by strikes 3 times.

Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa Flyweight

Albazi is a patient, low-output striker with a submission game; Costa is a striker with real knockout power. Expect a stand-up fight: Costa brings more volume, and Costa carries the knockout power. On style, Costa has the edge on the feet, with a strike differential of +0.1 a minute to Albazi's -1.4. The takedown threat is close to even. Pick: Costa by decision (52% chance). 0 of Costa's 5 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Albazi has never been finished in the UFC.

Jake Matthews vs. Tahir Abdullayev Welterweight

Matthews is a striker; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Matthews by decision (51% chance). 8 of Matthews's 16 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Abdullayev has never lost in the UFC.

UFC Prochazka vs. Stirling full card predictions

Nine fights. Each pick names the winner, from MMA.SOCIAL's rating adjusted by the two styles, and how the fight most likely ends, from how the favourite wins and how the opponent has lost; the fans' column is the free pick'em so far.

The rating is MMA.SOCIAL's own ELO, built from every UFC fight; the chance is the rating's, adjusted by each fighter's strike differential and takedown threat. Updated hourly through fight week.

Upset watch

• Jake Matthews vs. Tahir Abdullayev is close to even: Matthews 51%, Abdullayev 49%.
• Aleksandre Topuria vs. Santiago Luna is close to even: Topuria 51%, Luna 49%.
• Asu Almabayev vs. Kyoji Horiguchi is close to even: Horiguchi 51%, Almabayev 49%.

Make your picks

The UFC Prochazka vs. Stirling pick'em is free: pick every fight before the card locks, and calling an underdog the rating doubts pays more. Every bout, with both fighters' full records, is on the UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs. Stirling event page, and a full results write-up follows as soon as the last fight ends.