Predictions

Gane vs. Hokit Prediction, UFC 334: The Numbers, How Each Man Wins and Our Pick

Gane keeps fights at the end of his reach; Hokit has walked through everyone he has met in the UFC. The official numbers show what each man does well, and where the five rounds favour the champion.

By Jashan Nov 8, 2026 · 10 min read

At a glance

RecordsGane 14-2 with one no contest (11-2 in the UFC); Hokit 10-0 (4-0 in the UFC)
The stakesThe undisputed heavyweight title, scheduled for five rounds: Gane's first fight since Tom Aspinall vacated on September 14, 2026
The tapeGane 36, 6 ft 4 in, 81-inch reach; Hokit 28, 6 ft 1 in, 73.5-inch reach (UFC.com)
The numbers edgeHokit lands more (10.28 significant strikes a minute to 5.40); Gane absorbs far less (2.31 to 6.12)
The oddsGane -230, Hokit +190 on UFC.com (November 8); about -233 / +187 across 18 sportsbooks on UFC Calendar
Our pickGane by decision after five rounds (MMA.SOCIAL's opinion)

What's at stake

The undisputed UFC heavyweight title. Ciryl Gane won the interim belt at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14, 2026, stopping Alex Pereira with punches at 1:27 of the second round, as the official statistics and UFC.com's record of the fight both show. On September 14, 2026, Tom Aspinall gave up the title because of continuing complications from an eye injury, as Wikipedia and Heavy both report, and Gane was promoted to undisputed champion, which UFC.com's athlete page and Wikipedia both record. That injury came from their own fight: at UFC 321 on October 25, 2025, an eye poke by Gane ended the bout at 4:35 of the first round and it was ruled a no contest, as the official statistics and UFC.com show.

The promotion was not smooth. Dana White first said Gane would have to fight for the undisputed belt, then corrected himself, as Cage Side Press and Wikipedia both report. The listings still differ a little: UFC.com's event page labels it a "Heavyweight Title Bout" and its event art calls Gane the UFC heavyweight champion, but one caption on the same page still says interim champion, and Heavy's card marks him "(IC)" while its text says undisputed. We follow the bout label and the promotion, as Paramount+ and the mma.social event page do: this is for the undisputed title, and Gane's first fight since he was elevated.

It is Gane's sixth UFC title fight. He won the interim title by stopping Derrick Lewis in the third round at UFC 265 in August 2021, lost a unanimous decision to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in January 2022, and was submitted by Jon Jones with a guillotine in the first round at UFC 285 in March 2023, as the official statistics and Wikipedia both show. He is 14-2 with one no contest, the record UFC.com, Sherdog and Wikipedia give (Bleacher Report writes 14-2-1, counting the no contest), and 11-2 in the UFC.

Josh Hokit is 10-0, as UFC.com, Sherdog and Bleacher Report all list him, and this is his fifth UFC fight. He earned his contract on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2025, according to UFC.com and Wikipedia. In the UFC he stopped Max Gimenis at 0:56 of the first round in November 2025 and Denzel Freeman at 4:59 of the first round at UFC 324 in January 2026, beat Curtis Blaydes on all three cards, 29-28, at UFC 327 in April, and stopped Derrick Lewis at 4:09 of the second round on the same UFC Freedom 250 card where Gane beat Pereira. The official statistics, UFC.com and UFC Calendar all agree on those results. Before MMA he was an All-American college wrestler and spent two NFL seasons on the 49ers' practice squad, as UFC.com and Wikipedia both record.

The fight is scheduled for five rounds, as UFC Calendar and Next-Fight both list it; UFC.com's event page does not state the number. Hokit's longest UFC fight is the 15 minutes against Blaydes. The betting makes Gane a clear favourite: UFC.com listed Gane -230 and Hokit +190 when we checked on November 8, close to UFC Calendar's average across 18 sportsbooks (-233 and +187) and to the -230 and +193 FightOdds.io opened with in September, as Heavy reported. The Independent quotes Betway at 4/11 and 21/10. At -230 the market gives Gane roughly a 70% chance.

Tale of the tape

Each man's whole UFC career, from the official per-round statistics. Red is Gane, blue is Hokit; a longer bar means a bigger number, which for strikes absorbed is the worse one.

UFC career	Gane - Hokit	Behind the number
Sig. strikes landed per minute	5.40 - 10.28	983 in 181:56; 309 in 30:04
Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	2.31 - 6.12	420 absorbed; 184 absorbed
Sig. strike accuracy (%)	61.7 - 63.8	983 of 1,593; 309 of 484
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes	0.66 - 1.50	8 of 34; 3 of 6
Takedown defense (%)	47.1 - 77.8	opponents 9 of 17; 2 of 9
Control time per fight (seconds)	70 - 128	1:10 a fight; 2:08 a fight
Knockdowns scored	4 - 3	knockdowns absorbed: 1; 0
Finish rate (%)	63.6 - 75.0	7 of 11 wins; 3 of 4 wins

How we computed these: from the official UFC statistics (the ufcstats mirror, to about November 1, 2026), every UFC bout of each man's career, duplicate listings removed: Gane's 14, including the no contest with Aspinall, and Hokit's four (his Contender Series bout is not included). Fight time comes from each bout's official round and finishing time: 181:56 for Gane, 30:04 for Hokit. Per-minute rates are career totals divided by career minutes; takedowns per 15 minutes is the same rate times 15. Accuracy is significant strikes landed divided by attempted. Takedown defense is the share of opponents' attempts that failed. Control time per fight is total control seconds divided by bouts (16:15 over 14 for Gane, 8:30 over four for Hokit). Knockdowns are totals scored. Finish rate is wins by KO, TKO or submission divided by UFC wins. UFC.com's athlete page matches every Gane figure, rounded; for Hokit it shows 9.29 landed and 5.28 absorbed a minute, 65% accuracy, 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and 78% defense, without saying which bouts it counts.

Read Hokit's column with his sample in mind. Thirty minutes is a small base, and one fight shapes most of it: 174 of the 184 significant strikes he has absorbed came against Blaydes, so in his other three fights, about 15 minutes in all, he absorbed ten. The 10.28 he lands a minute is real across his fights, though: 177 against Blaydes over 15 minutes and 86 against Lewis in 9:09. Gane's column carries the other caveat. All nine takedowns he has allowed came from three men: Ngannou landed 4 of 5, Volkov 3 of 4 in their December 2024 rematch, and Jones 2 of 2.

The styles show in where the strikes land. Of Gane's 983, 873 (89%) landed at distance. Of Hokit's 309, 278 (90%) went to the head, five to the legs, and 100 came in the clinch or on the ground. On the tape, UFC.com lists Gane at 76 inches tall with an 81-inch reach and Hokit at 73 inches with a 73.5-inch reach (Agent MMA and mma.social give Hokit 73), and both UFC.com and Agent MMA give their ages as 36 and 28.

How Gane wins

Keep the fight at the end of his reach

Gane has seven and a half inches more reach on UFC.com's measurements, and his record is built on using it: nearly nine in ten of his landed strikes come at distance, spread over the head (438), body (261) and legs (284). Kicks to the lead leg and body tax a fighter who has to come forward to do his work.

Make the pace cost Hokit

Hokit's pressure comes with return fire. Blaydes landed 174 significant strikes on him in 15 minutes, and CBS Sports and Bloody Elbow's report (carried by Yardbarker) both describe the two men rocking each other. Gane lands 61.7% of his significant strikes and absorbs 2.31 a minute, less than half of Hokit's 6.12. If Hokit walks in on straight lines, Gane is accurate enough to punish it.

Stay off the fence and off his back

Gane's two losses and his split-decision win over Volkov in December 2024 were the fights in which opponents took him down: Ngannou had 8:29 of control time on him, Volkov 4:32, and Jones finished him with a guillotine at 2:04 after two takedowns. His other UFC opponents landed none.

Take the late rounds

Gane has gone the full 25 minutes three times, against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Volkov in 2021 and Ngannou, and he stopped Lewis and Tai Tuivasa in the third round of five-round fights. Hokit has never been past the 15th minute in the UFC. Rounds four and five are where the champion's experience is an edge the numbers above cannot show.

How Hokit wins

Close the distance early, behind punches

Hokit's power shows up fast. Two of his three UFC knockouts came in the first round, he has scored three knockdowns in 30 minutes, and Gimenis lasted 56 seconds. Gane has been knocked down once in the UFC, by Tuivasa, and recovered to win. The first five minutes, before Gane has found his range, are Hokit's best chance to land something heavy.

Mix the takedown into the punches

Wrestling is Hokit's base: UFC.com lists his style as wrestling, and UFC.com and Wikipedia both describe him as an All-American in college. He has landed 3 of 6 UFC takedowns and stopped 7 of 9 attempts against him, including five of Blaydes' seven. Gane's coach, Fernand Lopez, compared him to Cain Velasquez as a wrestler who can also punch, as Heavy and MMA Sucka both report in slightly different words. The threat of the takedown makes the punches land, and the punches set up the takedown.

Win the minutes on top

Hokit had 4:04 of control time against Lewis and 3:47 against Freeman, and 48 of his significant strikes have landed on the ground. Gane's record says where he is least comfortable: both men who beat him took him down. Every minute Hokit spends in control is a minute Gane is not kicking.

Keep the pace past round three

The open question about Hokit is the second half of a five-round fight, and his only 15-minute fight points the right way for him: his significant strikes rose from 41 in the first round to 54 in the second and 82 in the third, and he won all three cards. If that pace holds into rounds four and five, Gane's late-round edge disappears.

Where the styles meet

This is distance against pressure. Gane wants a gap that only his kicks and long punches can cross; Hokit wants to close it with punches, level changes and clinches. The numbers back both plans: Gane takes far less damage, and Hokit lands nearly twice as many significant strikes a minute. Whoever sets the distance in the first two rounds should win the fight.

The Blaydes fight is the best guide to how Hokit handles a big, experienced heavyweight who can strike and wrestle. On the official count it was close: Hokit landed 177 of 293 significant strikes and Blaydes 174 of 302 (CBS Sports gives the totals the other way round; we use the official statistics), Blaydes landed 2 of 7 takedowns and had 2:05 of control in the first round, and Hokit won 29-28 on all three cards, as the official results, CBS Sports and Bloody Elbow all report. Hokit can be hit, and he can be taken down, but he kept coming, and he was the busier man in the third round, 82 significant strikes to 60.

Gane is a different problem from Blaydes. He is harder to hit, and he does not need takedowns at all: he has landed 8 of 34 in his career and wins on the feet. The takedown is the variable on Hokit's side. If Hokit lands it, the fight follows the Ngannou pattern. If he does not, he is chasing a longer man for 25 minutes.

Our pick

MMA.SOCIAL's pick, and it is our opinion, not a fact: Gane by decision after five rounds. Gane's range, accuracy and defense should win more of the 25 minutes than they lose. We do not pick the stoppage because Hokit has never been knocked down in the UFC and took 174 significant strikes from Blaydes without being stopped, and because Gane's four decision wins came against heavyweights he could not put away: Tanner Boser, Rozenstruik and Volkov twice. We expect Hokit to win at least one of the first two rounds and to get Gane down at least once, and Gane to take the middle and late rounds on the feet.

The strongest case against our pick is the takedown. Both of Gane's losses, and the one win that went to a split decision, came against opponents who took him down, and Hokit is an All-American wrestler with real power, eight years younger than Gane. If he lands early takedowns and holds Gane down, he can win rounds the way Ngannou did; if he lands clean early, he can end it the way he ended Gimenis and Lewis. At +190, the market gives that a little better than a one-in-three chance, and we would not argue much with that.

The fight page: Gane vs. Hokit. The whole card: UFC 334. The fighters: Ciryl Gane and Josh Hokit. More: the most title fights in UFC history.

Sources

Questions

Who wins Gane vs. Hokit?

Our pick is Ciryl Gane by decision after five rounds, and it is an opinion. Gane has the longer reach, the better defense and five-round experience, while Hokit has never been knocked down in the UFC. The betting agrees that Gane is the favourite, at around -230.

Is Gane vs. Hokit for the title?

Yes. UFC.com lists it as a heavyweight title bout. Gane won the interim title against Alex Pereira on June 14, 2026, and was promoted to undisputed champion after Tom Aspinall vacated the belt on September 14, 2026, so this is Gane's first fight as undisputed champion.

What time is UFC 334?

UFC 334 is on Saturday, November 14, 2026. UFC.com and The Independent list the early prelims at 5 p.m. ET, the prelims at 7 p.m. ET and the main card at 9 p.m. ET. Gane vs. Hokit is the main event, the last fight of the night, so it starts after the rest of the main card.

What are the odds for Gane vs. Hokit?

UFC.com listed Ciryl Gane at -230 and Josh Hokit at +190 on November 8, and UFC Calendar's average across 18 sportsbooks was -233 and +187. That makes Gane roughly a 70% favourite. Odds move during fight week.

What is Josh Hokit's record?

Josh Hokit is 10-0 as a professional and 4-0 in the UFC. His UFC wins are a first-round TKO of Max Gimenis, a first-round TKO of Denzel Freeman, a unanimous decision over Curtis Blaydes at UFC 327 and a second-round TKO of Derrick Lewis at UFC Freedom 250.

How many rounds is Gane vs. Hokit?

Five rounds of five minutes, as UFC Calendar and Next-Fight both list it; UFC.com's event page does not state the number. Gane has gone the full five rounds three times in the UFC. Hokit's longest UFC fight lasted three rounds.