UFC 333 Predictions: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Pick and Full Card

Main event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev prediction

Alexander Volkanovski (15-3) meets Movsar Evloev (10-0) in the main event of UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on Saturday, October 24, 2026, for the featherweight title.

How it plays out

Volkanovski is a striker who mixes in takedowns; Evloev is a pressure wrestler. The fight turns on the wrestling. Evloev wants it on the mat; Volkanovski wants it standing and has the better of the exchanges there. Expect a fight for position: Volkanovski stops 65% of takedowns, enough to make Evloev work for each one.

• On the feet: Volkanovski lands 5.9 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.4; Evloev lands 3.9 and absorbs 2.8. Volkanovski is clearly the busier striker and wins the exchanges by the wider margin.
• On the mat: Volkanovski averages 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes at 33%. Evloev stops 61% of takedowns.
• On the mat: Evloev averages 4.8 takedowns per 15 minutes at 53% and spends 36% of fight time in control. Volkanovski stops 65% of takedowns.
• Age: Volkanovski is 6 years older (38 to 32).
• Five rounds: Volkanovski has been past round three 8 times in the UFC, Evloev once.

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Volkanovski by decision. 10 of Volkanovski's 15 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Evloev has never lost in the UFC. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Alexander Volkanovski the favourite: 1,410 to 1,265, 70%. The styles pull both ways. Volkanovski has the striking, with a strike differential (significant strikes landed minus absorbed) of +2.5 a minute to Evloev's +1.1. Evloev has the wrestling, with 1.7 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Volkanovski's defence, to 0.5 the other way. With the styles in, Volkanovski's chance eases to 66%. The fans agree: 10 of 15 pick'em players (67%) are with Volkanovski.

Fight page for Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev · Compare the two side by side

Co-main event: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction

Petr Yan (12-4) meets Merab Dvalishvili (14-3) in the co-main event, for the bantamweight title. They have met twice before: Dvalishvili won by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili (March 2023) and Yan won by unanimous decision at UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 (December 2025).

How it plays out

Yan is a striker who mixes in takedowns; Dvalishvili is a pressure wrestler. The fight turns on the wrestling. Dvalishvili wants it on the mat; Yan wants it standing, though Dvalishvili has had the better of the exchanges there too. With Yan stopping 86% of takedowns, Dvalishvili may have to win long stretches on the feet.

• On the feet: Yan lands 5.0 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 4.6; Dvalishvili lands 4.7 and absorbs 3.2. The output is close, and Dvalishvili wins the exchanges by the wider margin.
• On the mat: Yan averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% and spends 16% of fight time in control. Dvalishvili stops 75% of takedowns.
• On the mat: Dvalishvili averages 5.0 takedowns per 15 minutes at 30% and spends 30% of fight time in control. Yan stops 86% of takedowns.
• Five rounds: Yan has been past round three 7 times in the UFC, Dvalishvili 5 times.

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Dvalishvili by decision. 12 of Dvalishvili's 14 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Yan has never been finished in the UFC. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Merab Dvalishvili a slight favourite: 1,342 to 1,311, 54%. On style, Dvalishvili has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +1.5 a minute to Yan's +0.4, and 0.7 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Yan's defence, to 0.4 the other way. With the styles in, Dvalishvili's chance rises to 60%. And the 14 pick'em players are split down the middle.

Fight page for Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili · Compare the two side by side

The rest of the card

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov Flyweight

Kavanagh is a striker; Temirov is a striker with real knockout power. Expect a stand-up fight: Temirov carries the knockout power. On style, Temirov has the edge on the feet, with a strike differential of +1.1 a minute to Kavanagh's +0.2. The takedown threat is close to even. Pick: Temirov by KO/TKO (67% chance). 2 of Temirov's 3 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, and Kavanagh has been stopped by strikes once.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev Heavyweight

Volkov and Kuniev are both strikers. Expect a stand-up fight: Volkov brings more volume, and Volkov carries the knockout power. On style it is close to even: a similar strike differential and a similar takedown threat. Pick: Volkov by decision (70% chance). 7 of Volkov's 14 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Kuniev has never been finished in the UFC.

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita Featherweight

Pico is a pressure wrestler; Keita is a striker. The fight turns on the wrestling. Pico wants it on the mat; Keita wants it standing, though Pico has had the better of the exchanges there too. Keita has rarely had to stop a takedown in the UFC, so the first attempts will tell. On style, Pico has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +3.1 a minute to Keita's -0.1, and 2.3 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Keita's defence, to 0.0 the other way. Pick: Pico by decision (71% chance). Pico's only UFC win went to the scorecards, and Keita has never been finished in the UFC.

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes Light Heavyweight

Murzakanov and Reyes are both strikers with real knockout power. Expect a stand-up fight: both carry knockout power. On style it is close to even: a similar strike differential and a similar takedown threat. Pick: Murzakanov by KO/TKO (68% chance). 5 of Murzakanov's 6 UFC wins came by KO/TKO, and Reyes has been stopped by strikes 4 times.

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev Light Heavyweight

Krylov and Yakhyaev are both grapplers who wrestle to submit. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and Yakhyaev projects to land more takedowns against the other's defence. On style, Yakhyaev has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +1.5 a minute to Krylov's +1.0, and 6.1 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Krylov's defence, to 1.1 the other way. Pick: Yakhyaev by submission (90% chance). 2 of Yakhyaev's 3 UFC wins came by submission, and Krylov has been submitted 4 times.

Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston Middleweight

Magomedov is a grappler who wrestles to submit; Rowston is a pressure wrestler with real knockout power. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and Magomedov projects to land more takedowns against the other's defence. The styles pull both ways. Rowston has the striking, with a strike differential of +3.5 a minute to Magomedov's -0.4. Magomedov has the wrestling, with 0.9 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Rowston's defence, to 0.0 the other way. Pick: Rowston by decision (70% chance). 1 of Rowston's 3 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev Lightweight

Dawson is a grappler who wrestles to submit; Aliev is a pressure wrestler. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and on the numbers neither has the clear edge there. On style, Dawson has the edge on the feet, with a strike differential of +0.8 a minute to Aliev's +0.3. The takedown threat is close to even. Pick: Dawson by decision (60% chance). 5 of Dawson's 12 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Aliev has never lost in the UFC.

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov Bantamweight

Thicknesse is a striker; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Thicknesse by decision (52% chance, with a UFC debut in the fight). All 2 of Thicknesse's UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Chopurov has never lost in the UFC.

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun Middleweight

Malkoun is a pressure wrestler; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Vagaev by decision (53% chance). Vagaev's only UFC win went to the scorecards.

UFC 333 full card predictions

Eleven fights, two for a title. Each pick names the winner, from MMA.SOCIAL's rating adjusted by the two styles, and how the fight most likely ends, from how the favourite wins and how the opponent has lost; the fans' column is the free pick'em so far.

The rating is MMA.SOCIAL's own ELO, built from every UFC fight; the chance is the rating's, adjusted by each fighter's strike differential and takedown threat. Updated hourly through fight week.

Upset watch

• Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita: we like Pico (71%), but 6 of 10 pick'em players (60%) are with Keita.
• Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston: we like Rowston (70%), but 7 of 13 pick'em players (54%) are with Magomedov.
• Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev: we like Dawson (60%), but 7 of 12 pick'em players (58%) are with Aliev.
• Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun is close to even: Vagaev 53%, Malkoun 47%.

Make your picks

The UFC 333 pick'em is free: pick every fight before the card locks, and calling an underdog the rating doubts pays more. Every bout, with both fighters' full records, is on the UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev event page, and a full results write-up follows as soon as the last fight ends.