Bonfim vs. Brady Predictions: UFC Fight Night Picks for November 7

Main event: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady prediction

Gabriel Bonfim (7-1) meets Sean Brady (9-2) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at welterweight.

How it plays out

Bonfim and Brady are both grapplers who wrestle to submit. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and on the numbers neither has the clear edge there.

• On the feet: Bonfim lands 4.7 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.6; Brady lands 3.6 and absorbs 2.3. Bonfim is clearly the busier striker.
• On the mat: Bonfim averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52%. Brady stops 78% of takedowns.
• On the mat: Brady averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes at 51% and spends 52% of fight time in control. Bonfim stops 79% of takedowns.
• Submissions: Bonfim has 3 UFC wins by submission and tries 0.9 per 15 minutes. Brady has never been submitted in the UFC.
• Submissions: Brady has 4 UFC wins by submission and tries 0.9 per 15 minutes. Bonfim has never been submitted in the UFC.
• Five rounds: Bonfim has been past round three once in the UFC, Brady twice.

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Brady by decision. 5 of Brady's 9 UFC wins went to the scorecards. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Sean Brady the narrowest of favourites: 1,156 to 1,149, 51%. On style it is close to even: a similar strike differential (significant strikes landed minus absorbed) and a similar takedown threat. With the styles in, Brady's chance rises to 53%.

Fight page for Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady · Compare the two side by side

Co-main event: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba prediction

Tatiana Suarez (9-1) meets Virna Jandiroba (9-4) in the co-main event, at women's strawweight.

How it plays out

Suarez and Jandiroba are both grapplers who wrestle to submit. Both want it on the mat, so the wrestling decides who ends up on top, and Jandiroba projects to land more takedowns against the other's defence.

• On the feet: Suarez lands 2.9 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 1.6; Jandiroba lands 2.4 and absorbs 3.1. The output is close, and Suarez wins the exchanges by the wider margin.
• On the mat: Suarez averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46% and spends 60% of fight time in control. Jandiroba stops 78% of takedowns.
• On the mat: Jandiroba averages 2.9 takedowns per 15 minutes at 37% and spends 44% of fight time in control. Suarez stops 57% of takedowns.
• Submissions: Suarez has 5 UFC wins by submission and tries 0.7 per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has never been submitted in the UFC.
• Submissions: Jandiroba has 3 UFC wins by submission and tries 1.1 per 15 minutes. Suarez has never been submitted in the UFC.

Rates and percentages are from each fighter's last ten UFC fights in the official stats; records are UFC only. The rating + styles chance is how our pick is made: see the last question below.

Our pick

Suarez by decision. 3 of Suarez's 9 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Jandiroba has never been finished in the UFC. MMA.SOCIAL's rating makes Tatiana Suarez the favourite: 1,190 to 1,100, 63%. The styles pull both ways. Suarez has the striking, with a strike differential of +1.2 a minute to Jandiroba's -0.6. Jandiroba has the wrestling, with 1.2 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Suarez's defence, to 1.0 the other way. With the styles in, Suarez's chance rises to 66%.

Fight page for Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba · Compare the two side by side

The rest of the card

Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith Bantamweight

Grant is a high-volume striker; Smith is a grappler who wrestles to submit. The fight turns on the wrestling. Smith wants it on the mat; Grant wants it standing, though Smith has had the better of the exchanges there too. Expect a fight for position: Grant stops 64% of takedowns, enough to make Smith work for each one. On style, Smith has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +2.0 a minute to Grant's +1.6, and 0.6 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Grant's defence, to 0.1 the other way. Pick: Smith by decision (72% chance). 1 of Smith's 3 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Seokhyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman Welterweight

Ko is a pressure wrestler; Turman is a striker who mixes in takedowns. The fight turns on the wrestling. Ko wants it on the mat; Turman wants it standing, though Ko has had the better of the exchanges there too. Expect Ko to get it down: Turman stops only 43% of takedowns. On style, Ko has the edge both ways: a strike differential of +1.5 a minute to Turman's -0.9, and 1.9 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Turman's defence, to 0.8 the other way. Pick: Ko by decision (84% chance). All 2 of Ko's UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Andre Petroski Middleweight

Petroski is a pressure wrestler; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Kondratavicius by decision (75% chance). Kondratavicius's only UFC win went to the scorecards.

Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando Light Heavyweight

Elekana is a patient, low-output striker with a submission game; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Elekana by decision (a coin flip). 1 of Elekana's 3 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Fernando has never lost in the UFC.

Gabriel Lorenco vs. Alvin Hines Heavyweight

Hines is a high-volume striker; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Lorenco by decision (63% chance, with a UFC debut in the fight). Lorenco makes a UFC debut; Hines has lost 2 UFC fights: 1 by KO/TKO and 1 on the scorecards.

Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes Women's Flyweight

Silva is a striker who mixes in takedowns with a submission game; Fernandes is a striker. Expect a stand-up fight: Fernandes brings more volume. On style, Silva has the edge both ways: a strike differential of -0.4 a minute to Fernandes's -1.8, and 0.6 expected takedowns per 15 minutes against Fernandes's defence, to 0.3 the other way. Pick: Silva by decision (65% chance). 2 of Silva's 5 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov Featherweight

Pick: Magomedov by decision (51% chance). 0 of Magomedov's 1 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Delano has never lost in the UFC.

Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid Featherweight

Pick: Nakamura by KO/TKO (61% chance). Nakamura's only UFC win came by KO/TKO, and Schmid has been stopped by strikes once.

Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan Featherweight

Bashi is a grappler who wrestles to submit; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Bashi by decision (51% chance). 0 of Bashi's 1 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Brennan has never been finished in the UFC.

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milosevic Women's Bantamweight

Cachoeira is a striker with real knockout power; the other side has too few UFC fights on record to read. Pick: Milosevic by decision (79% chance). 0 of Milosevic's 1 UFC wins went to the scorecards.

Jonny Parsons vs. José Souza Welterweight

Pick: Parsons by decision (51% chance). 0 of Parsons's 1 UFC wins went to the scorecards, and Souza has never lost in the UFC.

UFC Bonfim vs. Brady full card predictions

Thirteen fights. Each pick names the winner, from MMA.SOCIAL's rating adjusted by the two styles, and how the fight most likely ends, from how the favourite wins and how the opponent has lost; the fans' column is the free pick'em so far.

The rating is MMA.SOCIAL's own ELO, built from every UFC fight; the chance is the rating's, adjusted by each fighter's strike differential and takedown threat. Updated hourly through fight week.

Upset watch

• Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando is close to even: Elekana 50%, Fernando 50%.
• Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan is close to even: Bashi 51%, Brennan 49%.
• Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov is close to even: Magomedov 51%, Delano 49%.

Make your picks

The UFC Bonfim vs. Brady pick'em is free: pick every fight before the card locks, and calling an underdog the rating doubts pays more. Every bout, with both fighters' full records, is on the UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady event page, and a full results write-up follows as soon as the last fight ends.